Gameweek 9 Captaincy Matrix: Mathematical Ceilings & Probability
Captain selection is the single highest-impact decision in Fantasy Premier League. Our Poisson engine models individual non-penalty expected goals (npxG) and explosive brace potential.
| Rank | Candidate | Price | Fixture | Projected xP | Anytime Goal % | Brace % (2+ Goals) | Assist % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Haaland (MCI) | £15.8m | BHA (H) | 7.14 xP | 65% | 28% | 10% |
| #2 | Tavernier (BOU) | £6.5m | LEE (H) | 6.26 xP | 45% | 12% | 18% |
| #3 | Evanilson (BOU) | £6.3m | LEE (H) | 5.25 xP | 42% | 11% | 14% |
| #4 | Rudoni (COV) | £4.9m | SUN (H) | 4.91 xP | 25% | 4% | 18% |
| #5 | N.Jackson (AVL) | £6.9m | FUL (H) | 4.75 xP | 38% | 9% | 12% |
| #6 | Neto (CHE) | £6.6m | MUN (H) | 4.75 xP | 25% | 3% | 15% |
| #7 | Thiago (BRE) | £7.8m | NFO (H) | 4.71 xP | 31% | 5% | 18% |
| #8 | Isak (LIV) | £9.1m | ARS (H) | 4.65 xP | 43% | 15% | 3% |
| #9 | Rayan (BOU) | £6.3m | LEE (H) | 4.64 xP | 25% | 3% | 11% |
| #10 | Mbeumo (MUN) | £7.9m | CHE (A) | 4.64 xP | 30% | 5% | 9% |
| #11 | Manzambi (AVL) | £6.1m | FUL (H) | 4.37 xP | 26% | 4% | 12% |
| #12 | Barnes (NEW) | £6.1m | EVE (H) | 4.29 xP | 22% | 3% | 13% |
| #13 | Rogers (CHE) | £8.1m | MUN (H) | 4.25 xP | 19% | 2% | 10% |
| #14 | Groß (BHA) | £6.2m | MCI (A) | 4.09 xP | 20% | 2% | 14% |
| #15 | Tonali (TOT) | £5.3m | CRY (H) | 4.05 xP | 7% | 0% | 17% |