FPL Gameweek 9 Expected Points (xP) & Match Projections

Mathematical player forecasts and Poisson goal probabilities for Gameweek 9 (2026/2027).

🕒 Last Updated: 2026-10-31T08:00:03.161772+00:00 | Season 2026/2027

Gameweek 9 Expected Points (xP) Leaderboard

Our mathematical model evaluates expected minutes, historical non-penalty xG/xA, fixture difficulty ratings (FDR), and defensive resistance to generate statistical projections for Gameweek 9 (2026/2027).

Rank Player Pos Price Fixture Projected xP Goal % CS %
#1 Haaland (MCI) FWD £15.8m BHA (H) 7.14 xP 65% -
#2 Tavernier (BOU) MID £6.5m LEE (H) 6.26 xP 45% -
#3 Evanilson (BOU) FWD £6.3m LEE (H) 5.25 xP 42% -
#4 Rudoni (COV) MID £4.9m SUN (H) 4.91 xP 25% -
#5 Silva (BOU) DEF £5.0m LEE (H) 4.83 xP 10% 30%
#6 N.Jackson (AVL) FWD £6.9m FUL (H) 4.75 xP 38% -
#7 Neto (CHE) MID £6.6m MUN (H) 4.75 xP 25% -
#8 Thiago (BRE) FWD £7.8m NFO (H) 4.71 xP 31% -
#9 Isak (LIV) FWD £9.1m ARS (H) 4.65 xP 43% -
#10 Rayan (BOU) MID £6.3m LEE (H) 4.64 xP 25% -
#11 Mbeumo (MUN) MID £7.9m CHE (A) 4.64 xP 30% -
#12 Van Hecke (TOT) DEF £4.9m CRY (H) 4.48 xP 7% 30%
#13 Hill (BOU) DEF £5.5m LEE (H) 4.46 xP 2% 30%
#14 Manzambi (AVL) MID £6.1m FUL (H) 4.37 xP 26% -
#15 Virgil (LIV) DEF £6.4m ARS (H) 4.30 xP 3% 30%
#16 Barnes (NEW) MID £6.1m EVE (H) 4.29 xP 22% -
#17 Rogers (CHE) MID £8.1m MUN (H) 4.25 xP 19% -
#18 Gabriel (ARS) DEF £8.0m LIV (A) 4.15 xP 12% 21%
#19 Jacquet (LIV) DEF £5.1m ARS (H) 4.15 xP 4% 30%
#20 Hall (NEW) DEF £5.3m EVE (H) 4.10 xP 4% 30%
#21 Groß (BHA) MID £6.2m MCI (A) 4.09 xP 20% -
#22 Egan (HUL) DEF £4.1m IPS (H) 4.07 xP 2% 31%
#23 Tonali (TOT) MID £5.3m CRY (H) 4.05 xP 7% -
#24 Calvert-Lewin (LEE) FWD £6.1m BOU (A) 4.04 xP 29% -
#25 Pinnock (COV) DEF £4.5m SUN (H) 4.01 xP 2% 30%

Frequently Asked Questions for Gameweek 9

Who has the highest Expected Points (xP) in FPL GW9?

Haaland (MCI) leads the Gameweek 9 projection model with 7.14 Expected Points (xP) and an anytime goal probability of 65%.

How does the FPL Predictor xP model calculate points for Gameweek 9?

Our model computes Expected Points using Poisson goal distributions for attacking returns, clean sheet probability splits, appearance matrices, and opponent defensive resilience indices.

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