FPL Gameweek 10 Expected Points (xP) & Match Projections

Mathematical player forecasts and Poisson goal probabilities for Gameweek 10 (2026/2027).

🕒 Last Updated: 2026-10-31T16:00:03.664222+00:00 | Season 2026/2027

Gameweek 10 Expected Points (xP) Leaderboard

Our mathematical model evaluates expected minutes, historical non-penalty xG/xA, fixture difficulty ratings (FDR), and defensive resistance to generate statistical projections for Gameweek 10 (2026/2027).

Rank Player Pos Price Fixture Projected xP Goal % CS %
#1 Haaland (MCI) FWD £15.8m NFO (A) 6.08 xP 55% -
#2 Tavernier (BOU) MID £6.5m IPS (A) 5.27 xP 37% -
#3 Mbeumo (MUN) MID £7.9m AVL (H) 5.24 xP 36% -
#4 Gabriel (ARS) DEF £8.0m HUL (H) 4.92 xP 15% 30%
#5 Evanilson (BOU) FWD £6.3m IPS (A) 4.86 xP 38% -
#6 Vuskovic (BHA) DEF £5.2m BRE (H) 4.68 xP 12% 31%
#7 Groß (BHA) MID £6.2m BRE (H) 4.56 xP 24% -
#8 Ayari (BHA) MID £5.4m BRE (H) 4.45 xP 28% -
#9 Richards (CRY) DEF £4.9m LIV (H) 4.45 xP 2% 30%
#10 N.Williams (NFO) DEF £5.0m MCI (H) 4.43 xP 10% 31%
#11 De Cuyper (BHA) DEF £5.3m BRE (H) 4.42 xP 13% 32%
#12 Calvert-Lewin (LEE) FWD £6.1m TOT (H) 4.40 xP 35% -
#13 Iwobi (FUL) MID £5.4m NEW (H) 4.39 xP 13% -
#14 E.Le Fée (SUN) MID £5.7m CHE (H) 4.37 xP 16% -
#15 Rudoni (COV) MID £4.9m EVE (A) 4.33 xP 20% -
#16 Murillo (NFO) DEF £5.5m MCI (H) 4.33 xP 6% 30%
#17 Muharemović (LEE) DEF £5.1m TOT (H) 4.31 xP 6% 30%
#18 Enciso (IPS) MID £5.5m BOU (H) 4.29 xP 17% -
#19 Bogle (LEE) DEF £4.8m TOT (H) 4.29 xP 13% 33%
#20 McAtee (NFO) MID £5.5m MCI (H) 4.28 xP 8% -
#21 Gomez (BHA) MID £5.0m BRE (H) 4.26 xP 14% -
#22 Neto (CHE) MID £6.6m SUN (A) 4.23 xP 20% -
#23 Ødegaard (ARS) MID £6.7m HUL (H) 4.22 xP 19% -
#24 N.Jackson (AVL) FWD £6.9m MUN (A) 4.22 xP 31% -
#25 Bobb (FUL) MID £5.5m NEW (H) 4.22 xP 18% -

Frequently Asked Questions for Gameweek 10

Who has the highest Expected Points (xP) in FPL GW10?

Haaland (MCI) leads the Gameweek 10 projection model with 6.08 Expected Points (xP) and an anytime goal probability of 55%.

How does the FPL Predictor xP model calculate points for Gameweek 10?

Our model computes Expected Points using Poisson goal distributions for attacking returns, clean sheet probability splits, appearance matrices, and opponent defensive resilience indices.

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